Over 47,000 heat-related deaths may have occurred across Europe in 2023, according to a modelling study by international researchers who say this number could’ve been much higher if we didn’t have modern-day comforts and climate adaptions. The team used death data from the European Statistical Office to estimate heat-related deaths in 2023 across 35 European countries. They suggest 47,312 heat-related deaths may have happened between May 29 and October 1, 2023, with the highest number of heat-related deaths occurring in southern Europe. The authors then estimated what the death rate could have been without present-century climate-adaptation measures, such as improvements in healthcare, social protection and lifestyle, progress in occupational health and building conditions, preparedness efforts, increased awareness of risks, and more effective communication and early warning strategies. They suggest that without these, heat-related deaths could’ve been 80% higher in the general population, and 100% higher in the elderly.
Funder: E.G., M.Q.-Z., R.F.M.T., H.A. and J.B. gratefully acknowledge funding
from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe research
and innovation programs under grant agreements nos. 865564
(European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT,
https://early-adapt.eu/), 101069213 (European Research Council
Proof-of-Concept HHS-EWS, https://forecaster.health/) and 101123382
(European Research Council Proof-of-Concept FORECAST-AIR). E.G.,
C.T. and J.B. acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon
Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement no.
101057131 (Horizon Europe project CATALYSE, https://catalysehorizon.
eu/). X.B. and J.B. acknowledge funding from the Ministry of Research
and Universities of the Government of Catalonia (2021-SGR-01563).
H.A. acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement
no. 101065876 (MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowship TEMP-MOMO). J.B.
also acknowledges funding from FORMAS, the Swedish Research
Council for Sustainable Development (Cross-Cutting Climate
Adaptation—Challenges and Measures Grant ADATES) and from the
Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant agreement
no. RYC2018-025446-I (program Ramón y Cajal). ISGlobal authors
acknowledge support from the grant CEX2023-0001290-S funded by
MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033, and support from the Generalitat
de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. The funders had no role
in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or
preparation of the manuscript.
Media release
From: Springer Nature
Health: Climate adaptations potentially reduced European heat deaths in 2023 Over 47,000 heat-related deaths may have occurred in Europe in the year 2023, a modelling study published in Nature Medicine suggests. However, this total could have been up to 80% higher in the absence of present-century societal adaptations to rising temperatures.The year 2023 was the warmest globally on record and the second warmest in Europe. Heat waves pose health threats to high-risk populations, and an awareness of these health threats has led to the implementation of heat-prevention plans, which include preparedness and response strategies and potential interventions. However, their effectiveness is unclear.Elisa Gallo and colleagues used mortality records representing 96 million counts of deaths from the European Statistical Office (Eurostat) to estimate the heat-related mortality burden in 2023 across 35 European countries. The authors suggest that 47,312 heat-related deaths may have occurred between May 29 and October 1, 2023, which is the second-highest mortality burden since 2015, surpassed only by 2022. They estimate that the largest number of heat-related deaths occurred in southern Europe, including Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Cyprus, Spain and Portugal. Additionally, the authors modelled what the impact of heat-related mortality in 2023 could have been without present-century climate-adaptation measures, such as improvements in healthcare, social protection and life style, progress in occupational health and building conditions, preparedness efforts, increased awareness of risks, and more effective communication and early warning strategies. They suggest that heat-related mortality in 2023 could have been 80% higher in the general population, and in people 80 years of age and older, it could have been over 100% higher, without current societal adaptations.The authors conclude that their findings highlight the importance of present-century adaptions in preventing a higher heat-related death toll in 2023. However, they note that more effective strategies aimed at reducing the mortality burden of future, warmer summers should be implemented alongside mitigation efforts from governments to avoid reaching temperature thresholds.