Strong COVID-19 restrictions likely saved lives in the US and the death toll could have been higher if more states didn’t impose these restrictions, according to US research. The study found that if all US states had imposed restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower over a 2-year period. The research also found that if all states had weak restrictions there would have been an estimated 13% to 17% increase in excess deaths compared to what occurred. The study found that mask requirements and vaccine mandates were linked to lower rates of excess deaths. The researchers say not all restrictions were equally effective; some, such as school closings, likely provided minimal benefit while imposing substantial cost.
Funder: Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Ruhm reported consulting fees from opioid litigation outside the
submitted work.
Media release
From: JAMA
US State Restrictions and Excess COVID-19 Pandemic DeathsJAMA Health ForumOriginal InvestigationAbout JAMA Health Forum: JAMA Health Forum is an international, peer-reviewed, online, open access journal that addresses health policy and strategies affecting medicine, health and health care. The journal publishes original research, evidence-based reports and opinion about national and global health policy; innovative approaches to health care delivery; and health care economics, access, quality, safety, equity and reform. Its distribution will be solely digital and all content will be freely available for anyone to read.About The Study: This cross-sectional study indicates that stringent COVID-19 restrictions, as a group, were associated with substantial decreases in pandemic mortality, with behavior changes plausibly serving as an important explanatory mechanism. These findings do not support the views that COVID-19 restrictions were ineffective. However, not all restrictions were equally effective; some, such as school closings, likely provided minimal benefit while imposing substantial cost. Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Christopher J. Ruhm, Ph.D., email ruhm@virginia.edu.(doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.2006)