Embargoed until:
Publicly released:
2024-07-26 04:00
Human-induced climate warming has driven increasing rainfall variability over 75% of the Earth’s land, according to international research, which finds the effects are especially prominent in Australia, Europe and eastern North America. The study looked at increases in precipitation variability, which can mean wetter wet periods and drier dry periods. They found that daily variability has increased by 1.2% per decade globally. The team say rapid and wide swings between climate extremes not only challenge our weather and climate prediction systems but also have cascading impacts on human society.
Journal/conference: Science
Link to research (DOI): 10.1126/science.adp0212
Organisation/s: Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Funder: The study is jointly supported by the National Natural
Science Foundation of China (41988101), the National Key Research
and Development Program of China (2023YFF0805202,
2020YFA0608904), the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (42275038), China Meteorological Administration Climate
Change Special Program (QBZ202306), and the UK–China
Research Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office
Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China.
Media release
From: AAAS
Human-induced warming has driven increasing precipitation variabilityAnthropogenic climate warming has led to increased precipitation variability over much of the globe, according to a new study, which points to several hotspots for this trend. This effect is particularly prominent over Europe, Australia, and eastern North America, say the study’s authors, and is largely driven by increasing atmospheric moistening and decadal-scale changes in atmospheric circulation. As the climate warms, the atmosphere becomes more capable of holding moisture, leading to greater fluctuations between extreme precipitation events and wider swings between wet and dry episodes. Such amplified precipitation variability can profoundly impact human society and ecosystems, posing challenges for weather and climate forecasting as well as for adaptation and resilience planning. Although many global climate models project increasing precipitation variability – especially in wet regions – due to higher atmospheric moisture and weakened large-scale atmospheric circulation, the phenomenon is far easier to predict than to observe. As a result, it remains unclear whether increased precipitation variability has already emerged in observations. To address these uncertainties, Wenxia Zhang and colleagues leveraged five global-scale and eight regional-scale datasets of daily precipitation observations, which spanned 1900 to 2020. Zhang et al. report that precipitation variability has systematically amplified over the past century across various timescales and regions, driven primarily by increased atmospheric moisture from anthropogenic warming. According to the findings, roughly 75% of land area has experienced an amplification of precipitation variability, with daily variability increased by 1.2% per decade globally. The authors note these precipitation swings pose “threats to the climate resilience of infrastructures, risk management, agriculture, ecosystem functions, and economic development.”