Modeling the burden of long COVID in California with quality adjusted life-years (QALYS)

CDC. Post-COVID Conditions. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Published September 1, 2022. Accessed December 12, 2022. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.htmlCoronavirus disease (COVID-19): Post COVID-19 condition. Accessed December 12, 2022. https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-post-covid-19-conditionTenforde, M. W. Symptom duration and risk factors for delayed return to usual health among outpatients with COVID-19 in a multistate health care systems network—United States, March–June 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020;69. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6930e1Seeßle, J. et al. Persistent symptoms in adult patients 1 year after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A prospective cohort study. Clin. Infect. Dis.74(7), 1191–1198. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab611 (2022).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Yong, S. J. Long COVID or post-COVID-19 syndrome: Putative pathophysiology, risk factors, and treatments. Infect. Dis.53(10), 737–754. https://doi.org/10.1080/23744235.2021.1924397 (2021).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Chen, C., Haupert, S. R., Zimmermann, L., Shi, X., Fritsche, L. G. & Mukherjee, B. Global prevalence of post COVID-19 condition or long COVID: A meta-analysis and systematic review. J. Infect. Dis. Published online April 16, 2022:jiac136. https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiac136Davis, H. E., Assaf, G. S., McCorkell, L., et al. Characterizing long COVID in an international cohort: 7 months of symptoms and their impact. eClinicalMedicine. 38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101019 (2021).Prieto, L. & Sacristán, J. A. Problems and solutions in calculating quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Health Qual Life Outcomes1, 80. https://doi.org/10.1186/1477-7525-1-80 (2003).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Global Burden of Disease Long COVID Collaborators. Estimated global proportions of individuals with persistent fatigue, cognitive, and respiratory symptom clusters following symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. JAMA328(16), 1604–1615. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.18931 (2022).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Adjei, S. et al. Mortality risk among patients hospitalized primarily for COVID-19 during the omicron and delta variant pandemic periods—United States, April 2020-June 2022. MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep.71(37), 1182–1189. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7137a4 (2022).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Martin, C., Luteijn, M., Letton, W., Robertson, J. & McDonald, S. A model framework for projecting the prevalence and impact of Long-COVID in the UK. PLOS ONE16(12), e0260843. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260843 (2021).Article 
CAS 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Padmanabhan, R. et al. A review of mathematical model-based scenario analysis and interventions for COVID-19. Comput. Methods Programs Biomed.209, 106301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmpb.2021.106301 (2021).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Azar, K. M. J. et al. Disparities in outcomes among COVID-19 patients in a large health care system in California. Health Aff. (Millwood).39(7), 1253–1262. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00598 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Reitsma, M. B. et al. Racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 exposure risk, testing, and cases at the subcounty level in California. Health Aff. (Millwood).40(6), 870–878. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00098 (2021).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Huang, Y. et al. COVID symptoms, symptom clusters, and predictors for becoming a long-hauler looking for clarity in the haze of the pandemic. Clin. Nurs. Res.31(8), 1390–1398. https://doi.org/10.1177/10547738221125632 (2022).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Yomogida, K. et al. Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adults aged ≥18 Years—Long Beach, California, April 1–December 10, 2020. Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep.70(37), 1274–1277. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7037a2 (2021).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
O’Laughlin, K. N. et al. Study protocol for the innovative support for patients with SARS-COV-2 infections registry (INSPIRE): A longitudinal study of the medium and long-term sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection. PLOS ONE17(3), e0264260. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264260 (2022).Article 
CAS 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
California Department of Public Health. CalScope. Accessed March 1, 2023. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/Communications-Toolkits/Calscope.aspxMenni, C. et al. Symptom prevalence, duration, and risk of hospital admission in individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 during periods of omicron and delta variant dominance: A prospective observational study from the ZOE COVID Study. Lancet399(10335), 1618–1624. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00327-0 (2022).Article 
CAS 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Augustin, M. et al. Post-COVID syndrome in non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19: A longitudinal prospective cohort study. Lancet Reg. Health Eur.6, 100122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100122 (2021).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Malkova, A., Kudryavtsev, I., Starshinova, A, et al. Post COVID-19 syndrome in patients with asymptomatic/mild form. Pathogens. 10(11). https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10111408 (2021).California Department of Finance. California 2020 Population by Age. Accessed November 16, 2023. https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting/demographics/California Department of Public Health. COVID-19 cases dashboard v2.0. Tableau Software. Accessed March 28, 2023. https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19CasesDashboardv2_0/CaseStatistics?Perlis, R. H. et al. Prevalence and correlates of long COVID symptoms among US adults. JAMA Netw. Open5(10), e2238804. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.38804 (2022).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Haendel, M. A. et al. The National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C): Rationale, design, infrastructure, and deployment. J. Am. Med. Inform. Assoc.28(3), 427–443. https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocaa196 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wu, J., Dhingra, R., Gambhir, M. & Remais, J. V. Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application. J. R. Soc. Interface10(86), 20121018. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2012.1018 (2013).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Blower, S. M. & Dowlatabadi, H. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example. Int. Stat. Rev. Rev. Int. Stat.62(2), 229–243. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403510 (1994).Article 

Google Scholar 
Marino, S., Hogue, I. B., Ray, C. J. & Kirschner, D. E. A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. J. Theor. Biol.254(1), 178–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011 (2008).Article 
ADS 
MathSciNet 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Mckay, M. D., Beckman, R. J. & Conover, W. J. A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics42(1), 55–61. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2000.10485979 (2000).Article 

Google Scholar 
Carnell, R. lhs: Latin Hypercube Samples. Published online March 22, 2022. Accessed December 12, 2022. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=lhsBartsch, S. M. et al. The potential health care costs and resource use associated with COVID-19 in the United States. Health Aff. (Millwood)39(6), 927–935. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00426 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Di Fusco, M. et al. Health outcomes and economic burden of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States. J. Med. Econ.24(1), 308–317. https://doi.org/10.1080/13696998.2021.1886109 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Mizrahi, B. et al. Long covid outcomes at one year after mild SARS-CoV-2 infection: Nationwide cohort study. BMJ380, e072529. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2022-072529 (2023).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bach, K. New data shows long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million people out of work. Brookings. Published August 24, 2022. Accessed January 23, 2023. https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/Tsuzuki, S. & Beutels, P. The estimated disease burden of COVID-19 in Japan from 2020 to 2021. Published online December 15, 2022:2022.12.14.22283492. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.14.22283492Cuschieri, S., Calleja, N., Devleesschauwer, B. & Wyper, G. M. A. Estimating the direct Covid-19 disability-adjusted life years impact on the Malta population for the first full year. BMC Public Health21(1), 1827. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11893-4 (2021).Article 
CAS 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Wyper, G. M. A. et al. Measuring disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to COVID-19 in Scotland, 2020. Arch. Public Health80(1), 105. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-022-00862-x (2022).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Fernández-de-las-Peñas, C. et al. Post–COVID-19 symptoms 2 years after SARS-CoV-2 infection among hospitalized vs nonhospitalized patients. JAMA Netw. Open5(11), e2242106. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.42106 (2022).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Ayoubkhani, D. et al. Trajectory of long covid symptoms after covid-19 vaccination: Community based cohort study. BMJ377, e069676. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-069676 (2022).Article 

Google Scholar 
Carlile, O. et al. Impact of long COVID on health-related quality-of-life: An OpenSAFELY population cohort study using patient-reported outcome measures (OpenPROMPT). Lancet Region. Health-Europe1, 40 (2024).
Google Scholar 
Rafferty, E., Unsal, A., Kirwin, E., of Alberta U, of Manchester U, Kingdom U. Influenza and Other Respiratory Infections: Healthcare costs and effects of post-COVID-19 condition in Canada. Canada Communicable Disease Report.49(10), 425 (2023).Yoo, S. M. et al. Factors associated with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) after diagnosis of symptomatic COVID-19 in the inpatient and outpatient setting in a diverse cohort. J. Gen. Intern. Med.37(8), 1988–1995 (2022).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Pfaff, E. R. et al. Coding long COVID: Characterizing a new disease through an ICD-10 lens. BMC Med.21(1), 58. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-02737-6 (2023).Article 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
CDC. Long COVID—Household Pulse Survey – COVID-19. Published February 21, 2023. Accessed March 1, 2023. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/long-covid.htmTanne, J. H. Covid-19: US studies show racial and ethnic disparities in long covid. BMJ.380, p535. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.p535 (2023).Article 

Google Scholar 
Khullar, D., Zhang, Y., Zang, C., et al. Racial/ethnic disparities in post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in New York: an ©-Based Cohort Study from the RECOVER Program. J Gen Intern Med. Published online February 16, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-022-07997-1Colman, E., Puspitarani, G. A., Enright, J. & Kao, R. R. Ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections from healthcare and community testing in the UK. J. Theor. Biol.558, 111333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111333 (2023).Article 

Google Scholar 
Mehrotra, M. L., Lim, E., Lamba, K., Kamali, A., Lai, K. W., Meza, E., Szeto, I., Robinson, P., Tsai, C. T., Gebhart, D. & Fonseca, N. CalScope: monitoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 seroprevalence from vaccination and prior infection in adults and children in California May 2021–July 2021. InOpen Forum Infectious Diseases 2022 Jul 1 (Vol. 9, No. 7, p. ofac246). Oxford University Press.California Department of Public Health. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 in California. Published March 9, 2022. Accessed July 9, 2024. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Assessing-Impact-COVID-19-California.aspx